Do you think Lithium batteries will ever drop much in price?

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badnewswade
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Do you think Lithium batteries will ever drop much in price?

Postby badnewswade » Mon Mar 08, 2010 1:38 am

Production is being ramped up and analysts are predicting a glut in Lithium batteries within five years, and possibly as soon as 2012:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... t=1&f=1006
http://earth2tech.com/2010/02/11/electr ... e-horizon/
http://www.hybridcars.com/economics/com ... 27337.html

Not everyone agrees: This curmudgeonly gentleman for instance:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/190539- ... ttery-glut

However, said reporter has a personal bias - he sees hybrids, bikes and scooters as the future rather than plug-in cars.

A glut would be welcome news indeed for those who use electric vehicles, as battery prices are the bane of any EV owner and a barrier to wider acceptance of the technology. But do you think it's actually going to happen? What do you think is a reasonable price for a lithium battery, taking into account their advantages in performance and durability? Twice the price of LAs? Four times? Currently they're around four times the price watt for watt and as such I think they are way overpriced. To my mind this effectively cancels out their advantages - see for instance how due to this high price, many commercial lithium packs (on electric bikes for instance) don't push the potential for improved performance and instead concentrate on the light weight and durability - as increasing the available power would cost too much.

Anyone have any thoughts on this?
34 Watt Hours per mile, or > 700 MPG. What, me, smug?

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ChrisB
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Re: Do you think Lithium batteries will ever drop much in price?

Postby ChrisB » Tue Mar 09, 2010 10:24 pm

Problem being is lithium is still a finite resource and not readily available.

Yes they will drop in price a bit for a while but once the raw materials get flakey then up will go the price again.

ChrisB
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badnewswade
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Re: Do you think Lithium batteries will ever drop much in price?

Postby badnewswade » Tue Mar 09, 2010 10:50 pm

Well, yes, long term industrial society is doooooooomed and we're all going to starve to death in a post-industrial wasteland from hell, but I was thinking more in the next five years or so. :mrgreen:

Also, the batteries could be made a lot more long-lasting - like on that other thread where a design was invented that could last 20 years. And then there's recycling, which could also help play out supplies.

How much did the original V1 Ping batteries used to cost? I haven't noticed them change in price much, if anything the're a bit more expensive now as the pound has gone down against the dollar :-(
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ChrisB
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Re: Do you think Lithium batteries will ever drop much in price?

Postby ChrisB » Tue Mar 09, 2010 10:53 pm

We're all doomed :mrgreen:

badnewswade wrote:How much did the original V1 Ping batteries used to cost? I haven't noticed them change in price much, if anything the're a bit more expensive now as the pound has gone down against the dollar :-(


Ah but thats not due to the actual price of the batteries, these have actually fallen in price quite considerabley, look at after market laptop Li-ions .

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badnewswade
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Re: Do you think Lithium batteries will ever drop much in price?

Postby badnewswade » Tue Mar 09, 2010 11:19 pm

The fact that we don't manufacture them here in Britain hurts twice, doesn't it - first with the shipping prices and import tarriffs (when we've deliberately arranged to have no industry left to protect!) and second with the currency fluctuations.

Doooooooooooooooooooooooooommmmmmmmmed I tells ya! :twisted:
34 Watt Hours per mile, or > 700 MPG. What, me, smug?


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